The Tortoise and the Hare

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118008817.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

Demand for movies has never been higher than it is today, and the box office is bigger than ever - something that always seems to happen during times of economic woe. To me, the troubles the studios are facing reads like another sign that the reliance of both talent and exhibitors on the studio system to provide the bulk of our films is becoming less and less feasible.

Plenty of people are suggesting that part of the problem is the box-office. Nobody's making money, right? Movies just hope to break even, right?

No. As somebody who works on the inside of independent film finance, I can tell you that box-office is NOT a break-even proposition. Doom and gloom helps sell Variety, and it keeps the unions and the industry at large complacent with what they have... and there's plenty of info to substantiate it. Movies lose money all the time.

What they try not to emphasize as much is how many films make money in ticket sales, and how many companies - even today - find their first fortune in theatrical. It's a viable, very attractive business model for the person who knows how to use it, and marketing is becoming more accessible with the advent of social media.

One of the problems is that the studios tell their sob stories to the trades... and then the trades sell execs their news. Much of our working information in this business comes from a closed loop. Observe the trends for yourself. Use sites like Box Office Mojo and the MPAA to find hard dats, tracked over a long period of time, and you start to see a different picture. Not necessarily contrary... just more complete.

What does that picture look like?

Box office is up, and the studios are having trouble. Obviously, their reouble is not the box office. Rather, the problem is financing. They've been living fat off of big, diverse investment portfolios, and those portfolios have run dry.

They're spent. Simple as that.

In this economy, someone who keeps things far more sustainable can walk right by them... right into theaters. This is good news for independent filmmakers.